Key to winning the Midwest

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Midwest Sweep Part I

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The Midwest is comprised of 12 states and 124 Electoral College votes. It's the second biggest chunk, only the South is bigger. The Midwest is probably the most diverse section of the country. From conservative Indiana to liberal Illinois, the Midwest is more culturally diverse than any other part of the nation. Kansas, Nebraska and the Dakotas being the most rural are the most conservative. Its states like these that gave Bush his overwhelming land mass, but together these states 17 electoral votes right on par with Michigan as state which has gone Democrat since 1992. One thing is for certain, the Democrats must make a swing through all of the Midwest, not just the sought after for "soccer mom" states like Wisconsin and Minnesota, which are not swing states this year!

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Let's take a visual look at the Midwest.

We see the states in yellow, Missouri, Indiana, Ohio, they are ours take away. There is one here in particular that pundits on the other blogs will almost certainly question me about; that being Indiana. Why Indiana, the comparison from 1988 to 2000 is quiet alarming, if I was running Bush's campaign I would be pouring money and men into Indiana. This state is ripe for Kerry for several reasons but these little bits of info are the most striking ones!!!

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Look at the Bush family numbers in Indiana for a moment. Bush Sr. in 1988 received 60% of Indiana's popular vote, and gathered 1.3 million. In 2000 Bush Jr. received 57, but with fewer votes than his father got in 1988. This should tell us something!!!? The last four elections cycles have produced only 51% majority for the Republicans, yes Bush Jr. got a solid 56% in a two way race, but he got fewer votes than his father in a higher turn out election. Actually 15 million more people voted in 2000 over 1988 and Bush garnered over 50k less than Dad. Amazing isn't it. But the aggregate vote totals for the Democrats have only increased shown here in this table.

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The interesting part here is that Gore got more votes in Indiana than Dukakis, and John Kerry can get more votes in Indiana than Al Gore. Indiana is not as red as it seems, with its neighbor to the east Ohio, both economies have been in the shambles for the last 3 years.

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Kerry has a chance to take Indiana for the first time since 1964, when Lyndon B. Johnson walked right over Goldwater in a complete wipeout with 60% popular vote. What Kerry has to do is convince the Perot voters that voted for Bush that it is in their best interest to vote with their wallets instead of their ideology. I personally believe that Indiana is up for grabs, no polls have been done, and that doesn't matter anyway. I imagine they would not want to poll Indianapolis right about now...why do that when the majority, the 50% who care more about economic security and consequently can see through Bush's "war on terror" as a political ruse, will vote heavily democratic this time. We win Indiana outright with Indiana's rural Perot voters, those who didn't like Bush Sr., who liked Dole a little better, and who got fooled into believing that things were going to be different this time with another Republican in the White House.

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What did Bush Jr. say awhile back? "Fool me once, shame on me, fool me twice,...can't fool me again"

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The Deep Red Bread Basket Part II

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The "bread basket" is like the South's deep south. It's very conservative, somewhat religious, but not quite like those evangelical deep Southern states. Its farmland, with centralized urban areas, it's all those red counties that George W. won. Here are the 1988 results.

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Even in South Dakota Dukakis managed 47%, this is another one of Bush's big problems. Well it has more to do with 2002 than 1988 or even Gore' paltry 37.5% to Bush's 57%. It has to do with Bush betting his popularity would change Senate allegiance. Thune lost a close election and Bush lost credibility with South Dakotans "big time" because Bush made going to war in Iraq the central issue in the state. Fast-forward 2004: Iraq is Bush's biggest problem nationally period. Am I saying that South Dakota is possible, no I am not.? It would be nice, but just making it close again would be nice, that means if South Dakota is close, Indiana is already in the bag.

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What the Democrats need to realize is that the Midwest is like a mini United States, very rural, and very urban. It is very conservative in the plains and very liberal in the urban centers with Chicago as its hub. What will tilt the entire region our way is convincing a majority of Perot voters that both ends of the economic spectrum need each other for the region to survive, and convincing undecideds that it's ok to vote Democratic on foreign policy issues. Some states are out of reach and if it is close in places like North Dakota, then we won't even need to waste money and time in states like the "soccer mom" states. We must also take advantage that North Eastern Democratic candidates do better in those red states than Southern ones. The Midwest is ripe for a sweep, all we need to do is show the voters a bold new direction!!!